I am still reviewing the data and preparing a new post to discuss the pattern shift expected in early to mid-January. In the meantime, I updated the medium and long-range outlook pages this morning. In general, there aren’t any surprises.

It looks like we will trend wetter as the winter drags on, with equal chances for temperatures below and above normal. I was hoping for an even distribution of precipitation this winter, and the 8” of snow in December was a good start. Still, if these outlooks are to be believed, the recent trend of cold and generally dry air will win out until late January and into February when we get more precipitation. This could push our best chances for accumulating snow systems (outside of Lake Effect—more about that in the next blog post) into February yet again.

I still have concerns about the potential for flooding in late winter and early spring. You can click the links below to see each outlook page.

Medium Range Outlooks

Long Range Outlooks