All eyes will be on central and southern Indiana tomorrow and Monday, and I know many of us—myself included — have friends and family downstate who are at risk of heavy snow, so I’ll give a quick update.

Widespread 5-10” accumulations are expected from Indy just south of Bloomington.

South of Bloomington, snow totals will be lower, but only because freezing rain will lead to ice accumulation that will become more severe as you approach and cross the IN/KY state line.

Confidence is high in a significant event, but there will likely be a very sharp gradient in snow accumulation from north to south, starting just north of Kokomo (2-4”) and ending around the southern suburbs of Indy (4-8”). From the south side of Indianapolis to Bedford and Seymour is the bullseye for the heaviest snow (5-10”+).

Some high-resolution convection-allowing models (CAMs) are producing shockingly high snow amounts.

The HRRR seems to be the most aggressive, with widespread 10”+ accumulations in central and southern Indiana. I think there could be pockets of accumulation this high, but the HRRR is probably overdoing it.

Locally, we’ll see some clouds from the storm passing to the south, but not much else. Some light lake-effect (little to no accumulation) is possible mid-week, and then models are hinting at another winter system moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes next weekend. Early indications are that this system may track further north but feature light to moderate snow accumulation versus the moderate to heavy snow coming for the southern half of Indiana tomorrow. The system is well beyond my comfort zone, but I would not be surprised to see it appear in Monday’s 3-7 day hazards outlook.

It will also be quite cold in the coming week. It’s been chilly the last few days (currently 15° with a wind chill of 3°F in my backyard), but it is expected to get even colder in the middle to latter parts of next week. Highs in the middle teens and lows in the single digits are expected. Wind chills may dip below zero at times as well.

The next post won’t be for a few days, but if you will be down in Indy or have friends/family that will be, I’d love to hear/see how much snow they get! Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

If you’re a teacher, student, or parent, we have one more day of break. It’s funny how my interpretation of “one more day of break” has changed as I get older and have my own kids. (Hang in there, parents)

-pw