First, our boring albeit somewhat pleasant stretch of weather will continue through next week. Getting a car wash in the winter around here is a necessity this time of year, but tomorrow would be a good day to get one with the tranquil weather ahead. Some of that cleaning should last a while.

Things should start getting more active by the end of next weekend. Overall, we are going to be relatively warmer for at least the next week to ten days.

The warm weather is also expected to last into the 14-day range.

These aren’t saying a sudden heat wave is coming. Normal temps are in the low 30s for highs and around 20°F for lows. These outlooks support a few days with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. It’s nothing major, but after temperatures below zero, 40°F will feel pretty good—especially if the sun is out.

What concerns me is the precipitation outlook. Most of the next week or so is expected to be dry, yet the 6-10 day outlook is very bullish on precipitation.

This might imply potentially heavy precipitation toward the end of that 6-10-day range. Above-normal precipitation plus above-normal temperatures this time of year can lead to trouble. If we were to see moderate to heavy rain before the ground thaws, we could see an increased risk of flooding. The outlooks favor above-normal precipitation in the 8-14-day range as well.

Exactly how warm we get over the next week will be significant because another winter storm is brewing. At this range, the bulk of the storm looks like it will stay well to our west and north. However, with questionable temperatures after a cold snap, freezing rain and ice accretion are a concern—and that is exactly what is starting to show up at the far end of the GFS and Euro model’s ranges.

We’re talking nearly two weeks away, so nothing is set in stone here, but it fits nicely with the pattern unfolding now. As has been the case the past few winters, February could be the busiest winter month.

Enjoy the sunshine when we get it over the next week. You never know when the perma-cloud will come creeping back!

-pw