Welcome to March and meteorological spring! It has been nearly a week since the last post, I hope it was a good one for you.

As we move through the next week, things will become progressively more active—though total precipitation amounts will generally be lower. It also appears that temperatures will remain above normal overall through much of March. Despite strong signals for warm temperatures overall, that doesn’t mean we won’t see cold days and snow. This week is a great example: warm much of the week and cold the next two days.

Next week, high temperatures will again range from the upper 30s to near 50°F. We will see more precipitation chances this week than last. Tuesday into Wednesday will be mild but rather rainy. Another return to the 20s and 30s is expected late next week before warming up again (mid-40s) next weekend. Here’s a look at expected precipitation amounts over the next week.

Most of the rain next week will fall with a system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday, and 0.5-1.0” can be expected in that timeframe. Colder air will wrap around the storm and could kick up some light lake-effect snow showers on Thursday and Friday.

Beyond next week, things look mild and active overall.

The farther into March we get, the warmer things look. This may come at a price, though, as signals for above-normal precipitation are present as well.

As of this morning, there are strong signals for above-normal temperatures and moderate signals for above-normal precipitation.

The above-normal temperatures are a pleasant surprise, but what remains to be seen is exactly what “above normal” means. Will it be several weeks with temperatures 1-5°F above normal, or a few days with temperatures 15°F+ above normal with otherwise normal temperatures for several weeks? Either one would result in “above normal” temperatures and would also include cold days here and there.

This long-range forecast continues to support the risk of severe thunderstorms later this month. The increased risk of severe weather could also include an increased risk of flooding.

-pw