4/23/25 PM Update

The SPC did include our area in the next day’s 15% severe weather risk outlook (current day seven) as expected and shown below. Tuesday will be a day to keep an eye on for heavy rain and potentially severe thunderstorms, though it is far too early for specifics.

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The next seven days will feature above-normal temperatures. In fact, we have a very good chance of seeing temperatures hit 80 degrees at least once in the next week. This time of year, average temperatures are close to 60 for highs and around 40 for lows. We will be roughly 15-20 degrees above both for much of the next week.

Parts of the middle of the country that have seen healthy amounts of rain in the last week or two are likely to pick up even more rain during the next six to ten days. Precipitation will be more hit-or-miss locally.

As depicted in the outlook below, about one inch of precipitation is expected over the next week.

With temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and even low 80s at times, pop-up afternoon thunderstorms will be possible but very difficult to pin down this far in advance. Our next chance for severe weather appears to be one week from today, on Tuesday, April 29th. The Storm Prediction Center has already identified an area of potential severe weather to our west.

The energy highlighted above is expected to move east the following day (Tuesday). In the coming days, it would not be a huge surprise to see another area of 15% risk highlighted somewhere to the east and or south of the area in the image above. So far this warm season, SPC outlooks locally are batting 0.667, with two out of three advanced outlooks eventually producing severe weather in our neck of the woods. And even though this last outlook ended up being a bust, it was never touted as having the same potential as our first two bouts of severe weather. This is all to say that these outlooks are worth paying attention to.

After next Tuesday, temperatures look like they will come back down closer to normal values. No significant cold is showing up in the next ten days at this time, though. In fact, while I put very little stock in outlooks this far in advance, it would appear that just beyond ten days, another significant warm-up is possible as we head into the second week of May.