While we will see some cool mornings, especially the next few that will flirt with the mid-30s, the theme overall remains warmer than average. The latest CPC outlooks show the warmth lasting well into May.

Today will be the coolest day for at least the next five to seven days, and that is the only time during that period when we struggle to reach climatological norms for this time of year. Early this week, we should make another run at 80°F before returning to the 60s for the rest of the week. There is the potential for a few much cooler days before we warm up again during the first full week of May.

We will see a few chances for rain over the next ten days, with the best odds right now being Tuesday when strong to severe thunderstorms are possible and could bring some decent rain totals.

Heading deeper into May, things continue to look warm overall. One new trend has been much drier, though.

The warmer-than-average trend and drier-than-normal potential look to continue well into May.

Now, let’s examine the severe weather potential for early next week. The SPC is already highlighting areas of the upper Midwest for Monday. This is very similar to what we saw with our first two rounds of severe weather in March—a fairly specific area of higher risk several days in advance.

This energy will undoubtedly move east and pass through Goshen. However, questions remain about timing and atmospheric conditions. My best guess now is that the severe weather from Monday will slide through our area early on Tuesday in a much weaker state. This could muddle the atmosphere and limit the development of more severe weather later in the day when the cold front passes through. It’s one of those deals where the more sun we see, the greater the chances will be (how’s that for a rhyme?). The SPC has kept us in the Day 4 area of 15% risk, but that area has shifted further east, supporting my hypothesis on Tuesday’s system’s evolution.

Regardless, there is still a ton of time for things to shake out, and it’s just too early to call one way or another.

On another note, I have less than one week until my half marathon, and I wanted to thank all who have donated.

My original goal was $100, but thanks to some really incredible people, I am almost at $500 to donate to the Indiana Coalition Against Domestic Violence. Thank you, thank you, thank you. I have until May 3rd to hit my goal.

If you would like to donate, you can do so on my Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16VZ9nBAMh/?mibextid=wwXIfr