Temperatures today are expected to soar into the mid to even upper 80s. That’s roughly 20° warmer than normal over the last 100+ years and today we will come close to tying, and possibly even breaking, a 103 year old record. The record high for October 4th in Goshen is 89°F set back in 1922. I think we fall a few degrees short, but that plainly illustrates how rare temperatures this high are late in the season.

Because of the continued drought, warm and dry air today and tomorrow, and the expected wind gusts tomorrow, there is a high risk for brush/field fires. Normally, this isn’t a concern, and we rarely get Red Flag Warnings, but tomorrow will be close and with the harvest fully underway, the NWS is expecting a few brush fires will be possible across northern Indiana.

Warm and windy tomorrow, with partly cloudy skies expected. Monday should stay dry until late evening or overnight. Clouds likely thicken by midday. Tuesday looks like our transition day—and it will be a doozy. Highs Sunday and Monday should easily crest 80°F, but by Tuesday we will struggle to hit 70°F thanks to a cold front. So if you’re ready for more fall-like temperatures, that’s the good news. If you’re hoping for rain, it does look like we will see some, but it doesn’t look like much at this range.

Most will see 0.50” or so, while those more fortunate could get closer to 1.00” between Monday night and Tuesday night. A few thunderstorms are possible, but severe weather is not expected.

After the rain, things really cool down. Lows Thursday and Friday morning next week will almost certainly be in the 30s. A frost is possible, but a freeze looks less likely at this range—but is worth monitoring. It won’t be a hard freeze (28°F or lower for an extended period of time) and at worst we’d flirt with 32°F for an hour or two. Mid to upper 30s look most likely.

Looking just a little further, temperatures are expected to moderate back to normal or above normal. It’s worth noting that normal high temperatures are near 70°F now and fall into the 50s by the end of the month. If we are 15° above normal today, that means about 85°F. If we are 15° above normal on Halloween, that means it would be about 65°F. That is to say, we are expected to stay above normal overall, but we will be cooling down regardless.

As we creep closer to the winter season, a few things are beginning to fall into place. I will preface this by saying that these pieces of data are just a few notches above literally reading tea leaves. Nonetheless, a few things stand out to me right now about the upcoming winter.

1. Snow cover in Siberia and elsewhere in the arctic circle is way ahead of where it was this time last year. This is often the source of our cold air and the last few years the snow hasn’t arrive there until late October or November, and it’s there already.
2. We are expected to see a La Niña this winter. This is a function of Pacific Ocean temperatures and can be an important driver in the overall theme for winter weather in various regions. Last year we were mainly neutral.
3. The analog weather forecasters are still linking the upcoming winter to 2013-2014. This was one of the “worst” winters in my 38 years (extreme cold, snow, school closures for 5+ days).
4. The latest winter season forecasts from the CPC show equal chances for above or below temperatures. This doesn’t sound like much, but it is a change from the glaringly strong signals for above normal temperatures we’ve seen the entire summer.
5. The CPC winter outlook shows a decent lean toward above normal precipitation in the Great Lakes. The pendulum has to swing back from dry at some point and it could happen this winter. This trend combined with even normal temperatures, let alone below normal, could lead to more snow this winter. Plus, last winter only gave us about 25” of snow total—roughly 20” below normal. It would only take one or two decent snow storms for it to “feel” like a much snowier winter than the last one.

Okay, enough with the snow talk. It’s going to be sunny and almost 90°F today. Get out and enjoy it while we still can!

-pw